EUR/USD: Unlikely to trade above resistance at 1.0630/1.0640 unless US consumer confidence falls sharply – ING

EUR/USD zig-saws around 1.06. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

Softer rate profile weighs

Eurozone two-year swap rates have fallen close to 25 bps over the last couple of weeks as data and dovish commentary feed the narrative that the ECB is done tightening. Today's data should support those themes, where eurozone third-quarter GDP should come in flat quarter-on-quarter and flash October CPIs should show further improvement.

Unless US consumer confidence falls sharply, we doubt investors will want to chase EUR/USD through intraday resistance at 1.0630/1.0640, especially ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting.