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14 Apr 2015
US Retail sales bounce in March, but probably not enough for June hike – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Rob Carnell of ING, reviews the US retail sales data release and notes that today’s numbers don’t add up for a June rate hike.
Key Quotes
“The run of economic data will have to come in pretty strong for the next couple of months if there is to be any possibility of a June rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and the latest retail sales figures probably do not help the case for a June hike at all.”
“Headline sales rose by 0.9%mom, from an upward revised -0.5%mom in Feb, but with a 0.8%mom fall in January, and -0.9% in December, sales have hardly staged the decisive bounce back that could bring a June rate hike back into focus.”
“Indeed, with the Control group of sales rising only 0.3% (even with a 0.2pp upward revision to the previous figure), the picture remains mediocre at best, and that will not likely be good enough for the doves on the Fed.”
“There is still a chance that weather is playing an unhelpful effect on this data, with early March snow storms in the North East, but the excuse of weather for ongoing weakness is weaning little thin now, and April will have to bounce spectacularly if a June hike is even to be a remote possibility now.”
Key Quotes
“The run of economic data will have to come in pretty strong for the next couple of months if there is to be any possibility of a June rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and the latest retail sales figures probably do not help the case for a June hike at all.”
“Headline sales rose by 0.9%mom, from an upward revised -0.5%mom in Feb, but with a 0.8%mom fall in January, and -0.9% in December, sales have hardly staged the decisive bounce back that could bring a June rate hike back into focus.”
“Indeed, with the Control group of sales rising only 0.3% (even with a 0.2pp upward revision to the previous figure), the picture remains mediocre at best, and that will not likely be good enough for the doves on the Fed.”
“There is still a chance that weather is playing an unhelpful effect on this data, with early March snow storms in the North East, but the excuse of weather for ongoing weakness is weaning little thin now, and April will have to bounce spectacularly if a June hike is even to be a remote possibility now.”