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22 Jun 2015
USD/RUB could resume its upside in the near term – JP Morgan
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of analysts at JP Morgan, the RUB is expected to weaken further in the near term, giving extra legs to the pair.
Key Quotes
“USD/RUB is roughly unchanged in June following CBR rate cuts and flattish crude prices in a $63-65/bbl range”.
“The CBR cut its key rate 100bp to 11.5% as expected, but the more interesting comments for the currency related to FX reserves”.
“New comments on FX reserves suggest that a target of $500bn may be reached at a slower pace than original expressed (5-7years now instead of 3-5 years), which means less pressure on the currency over the long-run”.
“However, USD purchases have remained in the $100-200mn range this month, which should keep the negative pressure on the RUB over the summer without a material rebound in crude oil prices”.
Key Quotes
“USD/RUB is roughly unchanged in June following CBR rate cuts and flattish crude prices in a $63-65/bbl range”.
“The CBR cut its key rate 100bp to 11.5% as expected, but the more interesting comments for the currency related to FX reserves”.
“New comments on FX reserves suggest that a target of $500bn may be reached at a slower pace than original expressed (5-7years now instead of 3-5 years), which means less pressure on the currency over the long-run”.
“However, USD purchases have remained in the $100-200mn range this month, which should keep the negative pressure on the RUB over the summer without a material rebound in crude oil prices”.