When are UK Jobs and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK Jobs report overview

The UK labor market report is expected to show that the number of people seeking jobless benefits increased only by 3.7k in the three months to July, compared to an increase of 6.0k booked in the three months to June.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.5% during the period. Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to June are expected to remain steady at 1.8%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are also seen unchanged at 2.0%.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 20 and 60 pips in deviations up to 2 to -4, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 85 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

A bigger-than expected rise in the claimant count combined with weaker average earnings could knock-off Cable below 1.28 handle. On a solid outcome, we could see the GBP/USD pair attempting the recovery above 1.2900 levels.

Technically, “a convincing break below the mentioned support would turn the pair vulnerable to break below the 1.2800 handle and head towards testing 1.2775 support area. The bearish slide could further get extended towards 1.2720 horizontal support en-route the very important 200-day SMA support near the 1.2640 region. On the flip side, any recovery move back above the 1.2900 handle might now confront fresh supply near an important confluence support break-point, now turned resistance near 1.2925-30 region,” Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet notes.

Key notes

UK jobs: Unemployment rate could drop to 4.4% - HSBC

UK employment and Italian GDP amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

About UK jobs

The Claimant Change released by the National Statistics presents the number of unemployment people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).