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5 Mar 2014
Flash: Euro has flip-flopped in sentiment over last two months - FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Goncalo Moreira CMT, FXStreet Technical Analyst notes that Friday's COT report (futures only) shows the US dollar aggregate position turning negative (-19k contracts) in the speculator's group with shorts added for the second consecutive week.
Key Quotes
“From an historical perspective, the U.S. dollar contract is near its oversold levels seen in December but not at an extreme. Speculators have been bolder in their short net position in the Japanese yen (-85k vs. -79),Canadian (-58k vs. -58k) and Australian dollars (-38 vx. -44).”
“The was little change in the net speculative yen position in the last reporting week. Btw, same as in the Nikkei stock average where non-commercials remained net long by 10k.”
“The net short Australian dollar position of 39k contracts keeps decreasing since late November. The gross reduction of open interest reported in the previous week was not at all supportive for a AUD/USD down trend continuation. As a matter of fact, the decline in the net position has been fueled by a reduction of short contracts (79k vs. 49k) resulting from short-covering.”
“If most of the gross position adjustments were not more than 10k contracts on average, one exception to the relatively neutral stance of COT reports last week is the British pound where positioning is bullish and building. The increase in the net long sterling position was a function of more short contracts being trimmed than long ones, as both were reduced. Liquidity remains high as the open interest was actually increased to the December levels above 240k.”
“Euro has flip-flopped in sentiment over the last two months with a flip to the long net side reporting 13k vs -6k the previous week probably as a result of sales against the U.S. dollar.”
Key Quotes
“From an historical perspective, the U.S. dollar contract is near its oversold levels seen in December but not at an extreme. Speculators have been bolder in their short net position in the Japanese yen (-85k vs. -79),Canadian (-58k vs. -58k) and Australian dollars (-38 vx. -44).”
“The was little change in the net speculative yen position in the last reporting week. Btw, same as in the Nikkei stock average where non-commercials remained net long by 10k.”
“The net short Australian dollar position of 39k contracts keeps decreasing since late November. The gross reduction of open interest reported in the previous week was not at all supportive for a AUD/USD down trend continuation. As a matter of fact, the decline in the net position has been fueled by a reduction of short contracts (79k vs. 49k) resulting from short-covering.”
“If most of the gross position adjustments were not more than 10k contracts on average, one exception to the relatively neutral stance of COT reports last week is the British pound where positioning is bullish and building. The increase in the net long sterling position was a function of more short contracts being trimmed than long ones, as both were reduced. Liquidity remains high as the open interest was actually increased to the December levels above 240k.”
“Euro has flip-flopped in sentiment over the last two months with a flip to the long net side reporting 13k vs -6k the previous week probably as a result of sales against the U.S. dollar.”