India: GDP growth to remain unchanged at 6.3% - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect India’s GDP growth and gross value added (GVA) growth to remain unchanged at 6.3% y-o-y and 6.1%, respectively, in Q4 2017.

Key Quotes

“A cyclical recovery is underway, led by a gradual ebbing of pains associated with the implementation of the goods and services tax, ongoing remonetisation and supportive global growth. Given this backdrop, we expect nonagriculture GVA growth to pick up to 7.7% y-o-y in Q4 2017 from 6.6% in Q3. However, agriculture GVA growth is likely to contract to -0.5% in Q4 from 1.7%, as suggested by lower summer crop output growth.”

“On the demand side, we expect the recovery to be fuelled by a further acceleration in fixed investment and export growth, but with a moderation in private consumption as weak monsoons hurt rural demand. Although headline growth may be disappointing, in our view this is mainly due to weak agriculture while elsewhere underlying fundamentals suggest an ongoing recovery.”