Antipodeans seen lower, but in range over a year - Reuters poll

The latest Reuters poll showed that the foreign exchange traders see the Australian and New Zealand dollars moving southwards over twelve months, but the trading range is expected to remain narrow for both the OZ currencies.

Key Findings:

“The survey of 38-45 analysts plotted an uneventful future for the Australian dollar, which is seen at $0.7600 in one-month, $0.7663 in three months, $0.7700 in six months and $0.7800 over a one-year horizon.

That is lower than previous expectations the currency would touch $0.7800 in three months and $0.7900 in 12 months.

The continuing trade war rhetoric between China and the United States after U.S. President Donald Trump announced import duties on Chinese goods is also weighing on the antipodean currencies.

The uncertainty might explain the wide range in the forecasts from as low as $0.6600 and as high as $0.8600 for the Aussie on a one-year horizon.

Analysts polled by Reuters predicted small future moves for the kiwi, which currently sits at $0.6973.

The median forecast put the currency at $0.7076 in one month, $0.7017 in three months, $0.7100 in six months, ticking up to $0.7250 in one year.

Again, that is lower than the April poll when analysts had seen the kiwi at $0.7200 in three months and $0.7400 over a 12-month horizon.

While the median forecasts were narrowly spread, there was far more variety at the extremes, with the highest prediction for 12-months out at $0.8000 and the lowest at $0.6000.”