Australia: Confidence slump to fuel the doves - TDS

TD Securities analysts are expecting that this week's Australian sentiment reports are likely to be rather bearish.

Key Quotes

“Tomorrow, the NAB business survey is expected to muddle along after soggy Dec/Jan prints, if not actually deteriorate further. A likely change of government is key here. Then on Wednesday, consumer sentiment is expected to slump on 'recession' talk.”

“As we edge towards the May election, a change of government is looking likely.”

“Last week, Australian media obsessed over a per-capita GDP recession. While technically correct, households likely just heard the R-word. In December 2014, when news of a similar "income recession" was revealed, there was a subsequent 6% slump in consumer sentiment to 91.1. We pencil in a similar correction from 103.8 to 97 (with downside risk) for Wednesday.”