Fed: Dovish surprise delivered - Westpac

Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac, points out that the FOMC managed to deliver a dovish surprise and the median is now for 0 hikes in 2019 and just 1 by end-2021, from 3 in Dec.

Key Quotes

“Along with the “dots”, the Fed trimmed its 2019 and 2020 GDP forecasts to 2.1% and 1.9% (the White House budget projections are 3.2% and 3.0%) and announced that its balance sheet runoff (quantitative tightening) would conclude in Sep 2019, earlier than many expected.”

“The Fed’s switch to projection of a rates pause of at least 12 months should reverberate on the dollar and US yields for some time, weighing on DXY towards its January lows. But beyond that, most major currencies are not likely to be compelling alternatives.”

“We don’t expect pricing for Fed easing to gain too much traction.”