Norway: Unemployment is falling more than expected – Nordea Markets

Erik Johannes Bruce, analyst at Nordea Markets, notes that the Norway’s registered unemployment fell by 900 persons in February according to The Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration, which is very close to the trend at approximately 1 000 persons lately.

Key Quotes

“So far this year, unemployment is falling only marginal slower than in 2017 when we all, including Norges Bank, were surprised by the strength of the labour market. It is clearly on the strong side to Norges Bank’s forecast for an about unchanged unemployment.”

“While the unemployment figure was on the strong side, today’s February retail sales were seemingly on the weak side. But this figure was pulled down by some temporary factors.”

“In sum, news since the March meeting argues for a June hike.”

“Remember that with more than 50% probability for a hike in June in Norges Bank's rate path news should in sum disappoint on the margin to prevent a June hike.”