USD/THB risks a corrective move near term – UOB

Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research suggested risks around USD/THB seem to be shifting to the downside.

Key Quotes

“We highlighted last Monday (09 May, spot at 34.59) that ‘there is room for the overbought USD/THB advance to extend’. We indicated ‘the round-number level of 35.00 is unlikely to come into the picture’. USD/THB rose to 34.85 last Friday amid deteriorating upward momentum.”

“Note that daily MACD is on the verge of turning negative and that there is a ‘triple bearish divergence’. The technical readings suggest an increased risk of a short-term top in USD/THB.”

“In other words, the risk is shifting to the downside towards the rising trend-line support (currently at 34.32). A break of this trend-line could potentially trigger a deeper pullback even though the major support at 34.00 is unlikely to come under threat this week.”