RBA could hike OCR by between 0.25% and 0.5% – Scotiabank

Economists at Scotiabank think “the RBA could hike by between 0.25% and 0.5% and markets have just over a quarter-point hike priced in futures contracts.”

Additional quotes

“When it first hiked on May 3rd, the RBA guided that further rate hikes will be required to achieve its over 2% inflation target that climbed to 5.1% y/y in Q1.

“Since then, Australia has seen a mild acceleration of wage growth to 2.4% y/y and 0.7% q/q non-annualized, a soft employment report of +4k with a large full-time gain offset by a part-time loss, and strong Q1 GDP growth and retail sales in April.”

“The RBA has already ended QE purchases of Australian bonds (January), chosen to end reinvestment of maturing bonds (May) and provided explicit guidance that it views outright bond sales as only a remote possibility.”